Where Is the International Conflict in Tunisia Heading?

(Translated)

Al-Rayah Newspaper - Issue 613 - 19/08/2026

By: Dr. Lassaad Ajili

The thinly veiled threat directed by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune at the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—stating, “Whoever threatens Tunisia, we will destroy their very foundations”—was merely an indicator of the intensifying regional and international struggle for influence in Tunisia. This occurred against the backdrop of widespread demonstrations in the capital on July 25, 2026, protesting deteriorating economic and humanitarian conditions. Protesters demanded the departure of President Kais Saied, the fall of the regime, and the release of political prisoners, holding the authorities responsible for soaring prices, declining purchasing power, and recurring water and electricity outages—marking one of the largest popular mobilizations since the measures of July 25, 2021.

Those measures had represented a major turning point in Tunisia’s political landscape; the President invoked Article 80 of the 2014 Constitution, dismissed the Prime Minister, froze parliamentary activity, lifted MPs’ immunity, dissolved the Supreme Judicial Council, and ratified a new constitution in 2022 that returned the country to a presidential system with sweeping powers.

Since February 2023, Tunisia has witnessed a sweeping wave of arrests targeting the President's opponents—including media figures, activists, judges, businesspeople, and politicians, most notably former Parliament Speaker Rached Ghannouchi. Many of these arrests stemmed from a meeting between businessman Khayam Turki and US embassy officials, in what became known at the time as the “conspiracy against state security” case. Tunisia is witnessing a Western struggle for influence played out through local proxies; President Kais Saied has moved to dismantle the British sphere of influence, leveraging support from France. From the outset, France demonstrated an understanding of the exceptional measures announced by Saied—evident in statements by the French ambassador to Tunisia and a phone call between President Macron and Saied, in which Macron expressed Paris's readiness to stand by Tunisia to safeguard its sovereignty and defend its freedom. Paris issued no condemnation of the process, save for expressing concerns regarding human rights and political pluralism—sentiments clearly reflected in French media coverage, which sought to court the pro-French political forces targeted by President Saied.

France’s official stance remained unchanged; President Macron welcomed the constitutional referendum, deeming it an “important milestone” in the political transition, and affirmed his country's readiness to support Tunisia in its negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He also stated that, “France is ready to work with Tunisia to meet its food needs.” This stance reflects France’s determination to preserve its vital network of interests in Tunisia, particularly across the political, economic, cultural, and security sectors.

In contrast, Britain adopted a stance opposing the measures of July 25, describing the referendum on Saied’s constitution as “lacking transparency.” It criticized the low voter turnout and the absence of an inclusive political process, calling for respect for the principle of the separation of powers and the engagement of diverse political and civil forces. Britain capitalized on the harsh judicial rulings handed down against the opposition in late 2025 to mobilize the public once again through its political and media channels. Figures aligned with its sphere of influence—such as Hichem Mechichi—returned to the forefront, coinciding with the rising media prominence of outlets perceived as sympathetic to the British stance, most notably Qatar’s Al Jazeera. This signaled an attempt to oust President Kais Saied and restore British influence by exerting popular pressure on the incumbent authority and enticing key power centers to abandon him. However, the limited turnout at both pro-government and opposition rallies reflected widespread public apathy, indicating that a large segment of the Tunisian population no longer places its trust in either the ruling authority or its adversaries.

Initially, the European Union adopted a stance similar to Britain’s, expressing concern over the political trajectory and calling for respect for the separation of powers. Yet, this position—particularly that of Italy and Germany—shifted during 2023. European states gradually aligned with France’s supportive stance toward President Kais Saied. This shift was evidenced by an intensification of official visits, the provision of financial aid, and the conclusion of economic and security agreements. These efforts culminated in a memorandum of understanding on a “comprehensive strategic partnership”—covering economic cooperation and the curbing of irregular migration—and were further bolstered by sectoral agreements in the energy sector, specifically regarding electricity interconnection projects and green hydrogen destined for the European market. The United States adopted a hardline stance regarding the path initiated by Saied, deeming the new constitution a threat to democracy and human rights. This stance was reflected in statements by the-then US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, Tunisia’s exclusion from certain U.S. diplomatic and military engagements, and the remarks of U.S. Ambassador Joey Hood, who affirmed his country’s resolve to leverage its influence to push for a return to democratic governance and to review U.S. aid in alignment with this objective. Delegations from the U.S. Congress also expressed concern during their visits to Tunisia regarding the backsliding of the democratic process.

Despite ongoing military cooperation between the two states, Washington withheld the guarantees necessary for Tunisia’s external financing and stalled the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The aim was to create a rift within the political class and capitalize on any potential popular uprising resulting from the stifling economic crisis. Consequently, Saied rejected certain IMF conditions, likening them to “a lit match next to highly explosive materials.”

At the regional level, Algeria’s stance emerged as the most consistent and enduring; it viewed Tunisia’s stability as integral to its own national security. Algeria supported the new administration politically and economically, providing financial aid and guaranteeing gas supplies. This cooperation subsequently evolved into military and security agreements, followed by broad economic partnerships, reflecting Algeria’s recognition that Tunisia represents its immediate strategic depth and that any political shift there directly impacts its security and stability.

Conditions will not stabilize for Kais Saied or his adversaries; for the people of Tunisia—who ignited the spark of change in North Africa during the era of the Islamic conquests and served as a driving force for Muslim peoples during the Ummah’s revolution—will overturn the status quo imposed by colonialism and its local tools and agents. They will usher in genuine change rooted in Islam, under the Rayah banner of the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly-Guided Caliphate) on the Method of the Prophethood. Allah (swt) said,

[وَمَن يَتَوَكَّلْ عَلَى اللَّهِ فَهُوَ حَسْبُهُ إِنَّ اللَّهَ بَالِغُ أَمْرِهِ قَدْ جَعَلَ اللَّهُ لِكُلِّ شَيْءٍ قَدْراً]

“And whoever relies upon Allah – He is sufficient for him. Indeed, Allah will accomplish His purpose. Allah has already set for everything a decreed extent” [TMQ Surah At-Talaq: 3].