Al-Rayah Newspaper - Issue 590 - 11/03/2026

By: Ustadh Ahmed Al-Qasas*

The Middle East is experiencing a widespread regional war, which began with a sudden and violent attack on Iran, and has since expanded to include Lebanon, with the potential for the conflict to spread to Yemen and other countries in the region. In this context, pressing questions arise regarding the true motives behind this unprecedented escalation. Was it a spontaneous event, or the result of a premeditated plan aimed at completely reshaping the political and geopolitical map of the region?

The deception of diplomacy and hidden intentions:

Despite the hopes placed by optimists on the negotiations between the US and Iran, the facts on the ground indicate that the Trump administration had been planning this war for some time. The massive military buildup, including aircraft carriers, warships, and hundreds of aircraft, was evidence of its intention to strike its targets, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. It appears that the administration lured Iran into the illusion of a mutually acceptable settlement, while its true objective was to completely eliminate its scope for maneuver and force it to abandon nuclear enrichment and dismantle its regional proxies and militias.

Replicating the Venezuelan scenario to change the regime from within:

One of the most surprising aspects of this war was the direct targeting of senior Iranian regime leaders, most notably Supreme Leader Khamenei, whose presence in such an easily accessible location, shocked observers. The assassinations of prominent figures such as the Minister of Defense, the Chief of Staff, the Commander of the Revolutionary Guard, and others also occurred. It is likely that America's aim in these assassinations is not to completely dismantle the Iranian state or plunge it into chaos, but instead to replicate the Venezuelan scenario. This plan relies on eliminating the faction resistant to American influence, paving the way for more pliable and compliant political figures from within the regime to assume power. Names like President Masoud Pezeshkian and Javad Zarif stand out as potential candidates for cooperation with the West, aiming to transform Iran into a vassal state, that abandons its foreign proxies, and focuses on its domestic affairs.

The role of the Jewish entity and the ethnic cleansing project:

On the other side, the Jewish entity stands as a key driver of this confrontation, with its Prime Minister Netanyahu exerting immense pressure to push America toward this option. His primary concern revolves around the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear weapons and missile systems. Eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities and preventing any other regional state from acquiring them is a strategic objective for the Jewish entity.

Iran’s proxies’ retaliatory tactics and ambiguous stance:

Faced with this onslaught, Iran’s military plan relies exclusively on missile deterrence, attempting to create a protracted war of attrition against the United States and Jewish entity, and inflict maximum material damage upon them. Iran focuses its strikes on American bases in the Gulf States and the occupied Palestinian territories, deliberately avoiding targeting American bases in Turkey, to preserve historical relations and avoid provoking a NATO member state of this size. Conversely, Iran has not hesitated to utilize the remaining limited military capabilities of its proxy, its Hezbollah, in Lebanon to launch missiles at the occupied Palestinian territories, despite the devastation this front will cause in Lebanon, the harm it will inflict on the Shia community, and the embarrassment it will cause to the political leaders of Hezbollah within their popular base and the Lebanese political establishment. This reflects the Iranian regime’s predicament and its need to employ all available means, with little regard for political considerations.

China and Russia: A game of attrition and major interests:

On the international stage, suspicions are being raised that Beijing and Moscow are providing covert support to Tehran, with advanced military intelligence and technology. It is in the interest of these major powers to bog down and exhaust America in the quagmire of the Middle East, before it can confront them internationally. America also aims, through its war with Iran, to deprive China of one of its oil sources, just as it did when it seized control of Venezuela, which was one of its most important oil suppliers, in addition to controlling territory along China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The comprehensive American project for the region:

This battle is not merely about subjugating Iran. It is part of a comprehensive American strategy to tighten its grip on Ash-Sham. America seeks to fragment the region, transforming it into ethnically and religiously divided cantons, thus facilitating its management and turning it into a major investment hub for its corporations. This project is accompanied by a relentless effort to impose the discourse of “Abrahamic Religion,” and to suppress any expression of political Islam, rendering it taboo.

Possible scenarios:

The region stands today at a crossroads, facing one of two main scenarios: either the American military machine and its conspiracies succeed in toppling the current Iranian leadership and replacing it with a pro-American faction, that will implement Western plans — a scenario that would solidify American hegemony for decades — or Iran manages to absorb the shock and withstand a protracted war of attrition. Its success in this endeavor would thwart America’s plans and deliver a crushing political blow to Trump and Netanyahu, especially with the approaching American elections, making them vulnerable to paying a heavy price for a reckless gamble. Will Iran surprise the world with its ability to endure and shatter the arrogance of America and the Jewish entity?

* Member of the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir