The American Roadmap for Lebanon
(Translated)

Al-Rayah Newspaper - Issue 577 - 10/12/2025
By: Engineer Majdi Ali

Two years have passed since the the Al-Aqsa Flood operation began on October 7, 2023. Then there was what was called the war of support from Lebanon, from the eighth of the same month. Then there was an American approach of follow up, until the ceasefire in Lebanon on November 27, 2024, and then the ceasefire in Gaza on October 9, 2025. Then there was American follow-up, within the movement of American envoys to Lebanon and Palestine, whether it was Steve Witkoff, Tom Barrack, or Morgan Ortagus, especially Barrack’s movement, with Barrack’s blatant and crude statements that are almost devoid of diplomacy in dealing with the Lebanese issue.

Barrack clearly threatened Lebanon; either to proceed with the disarmament issue, leading to indirect and then direct negotiations with the Jewish entity on the path of normalization and surrender, or the expansion of the Jewish entity’s attacks on Lebanon.

The latter is what has now become a reality today, especially after the strike on Ain al-Hilweh camp in which thirteen young men were martyred and dozens wounded. There was then the strike on the Dahieh suburb in which the chief of staff of the Hezb of Iran in Lebanon, Haytham Ali al-Tabatabai, and his companions were killed. The Jews’ announcement was that they had informed America of their strike on Beirut as a way of seeking its permission. This is because of the prohibition America has imposed on striking the capital Beirut since the ceasefire! Whether America was informed before the strike occurred, or simultaneously while it occurred, it fulfilled a major common goal between the Jews and America for the capital.

So, the result is the same. It confirms the existence of a plan or roadmap that America is pursuing, binding all parties to its political orientations. This includes its clear insistence over not reopening the Gaza war, and issuing UN Security Council Resolution 2803 to establish custodial guardianship and colonialism over it under the names of the Board of Peace, the transitional governance administration, and the temporary International Stability Force.

It was also noted that the Hezb of Iran, in its obituary for those killed in the Dahieh suburb raid, adopted a new term, (فداءً عن لبنان وشعبه) “in sacrifice for Lebanon and its people,” instead of what it had previously used in the obituaries of all its dead, (على طريق القدس) “On the way to Al-Quds !”. This may indicate its realization of the current stage after Iran left the Hezb partnerless. It is the stage of normalization and surrender, leaving the matter to the Lebanese authority to manage despite the scale of killing and injuries among the highest ranks of the Hezb’s leadership after the ceasefire, which exceeded one thousand between dead and wounded! It is known that Hezb of Iran has agreed to include civilian figures in the negotiation delegations with the Jewish entity, provided that the current negotiations remain indirect. Perhaps this indicates an attempt to moderate the Hezb of Iran’s internal environment.

It is clear that the Lebanese authority, at an American request, is not willing to move. It is clear that the Lebanese authorities, at the behest of the United States, are unwilling to pursue military confrontation with any faction within Lebanon. This comes amidst continued Jewish military pressure and American political pressure, and the extension of the Lebanese authorities' reach into domestic affairs, most notably in resolving the case of the drug king-pin and warlord, Nouh Zaiter, the most complex security-related issue previously covered up by the ousted Syrian regime and Hezb of Iran.

The milestones of the American roadmap did not begin with Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and what followed it. Instead, since 2019, America was proceeding with building its largest embassy in the region, specifically in Lebanon, with huge military and logistical capabilities. This was despite the apparent collapse of Lebanon, with respect to its regime and authority, during that period of time when the revolution broke out in the squares in October 2019, and then all the way through to the Coronavirus crisis. Moreover, it seems that America saw the collapse as an opportunity, within which it would oversee the political administration of Lebanon, the region, and the management of the resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, the most important of which is the natural gas available in vast quantities in the region!

After this general narrative framing, there can be further framing under more concise and comprehensive headers for the milestones of the American roadmap:

• - Reshaping the security environment and controlling the Lebanon-Palestine borders.

• - Transforming Lebanon into a zone of stability, subject to direct American influence.

• - Controlling the weapons of the Lebanese Hezb of Iran without comprehensive confrontation.

• - Crafting a political-economic settlement.

• - Investing in Eastern Mediterranean gas and removing any competing influence.

This is accompanied domestically in Lebanon by:

An active role for the President, the former army chief, and his relationship with American policy.

- The possibility of America changing the current army chief in favor of someone more loyal to implementing its policy in Lebanon.

• - The impact of the Bank of Lebanon (BdL) and the dollar policy on achieving America’s goals, as we saw the exchange rate remain strangely stable in the absence of any new economic stabilizing factors, even during the Jewish war on Lebanon during their war on Gaza!

• - The relationship of the economic and media elites with Western projects, which we notice in the escalation of media and politicians promoting relations with the Jews.

• The role of the churches and sects that benefit from the Abraham Accords project.

However, will America succeed in all that?!

America still, up to this moment, constitutes the world’s foremost major power, managing major issues. It manages the issue of the region and reshaping it according to the vision of normalization. It manages the issue of Ukraine and Russia according to its view of curtailing Europe’s role and making it dependent on America and unable to dispense with it and NATO, as well as weakening Russian-Chinese relations, all as a result of the Ukraine war. It also manages the China issue, which it sees as a danger it wants to prevent from growing by pressuring it in its regional environment, and its old or new trade routes.

However, America has failed to be the sole pole, in a unipolar world, as Bush Senior and then Bush Jr. wanted it to be. Instead, America has returned to something similar to Clinton’s policy in 1992, which consists of partnership with the other major powers. Moreover, its financial system is clearly failing, whilst it still remains a pillar of American influence in the world. However, what may not fully reveal America’s failure, and perhaps is the most important factor, is the absence of any other power challenging its position as the world’s leading state. This position is determined by Allah (swt) Alone. Allah (swt) said,

[وَلَوْلَا دَفْعُ اللَّهِ النَّاسَ بَعْضَهُم بِبَعْضٍ لَّفَسَدَتِ الْأَرْضُ وَلَٰكِنَّ اللَّهَ ذُو فَضْلٍ عَلَى الْعَالَمِينَ]

“And if Allah (swt)did not repel some people by others, the earth would have been corrupted, but Allah (swt)is full of bounty to the worlds.” [TMQ Surah Al-Baqarah 251].As for the challenging power, by the permission of Allah (swt),accompanied with the good deeds of those who do good deeds, it will be nothing but the Second Khilafah (Caliphate) on the Method of Prophethood, for which Hizb ut Tahrir works, joining its nights and with its days.

This American road map must be confronted and struggled against politically, and every agent representative of it in Lebanon and the region must be struggled against, whether the vessel that carries it is political, economic, or religious. This is done by steadfastness upon the thought and the method that shape the ideology we carry, Islam. This is the clear political path that must continue to be highlighted, with emphasis on clarifying its features as the only practical political alternative. This confrontation is not a seasonal, fleeting confrontation but a strategic one, by the permission of Allah (swt). And the abundance of the wicked must not be allowed to strike awe in us. Allah (swt) said,

[وقُلْ لَا يَسْتَوِي الْخَبِيثُ وَالطَّيِّبُ وَلَوْ أَعْجَبَكَ كَثْرَةُ الْخَبِيثِ فَاتَّقُوا اللَّهَ يَا أُولِي الْأَلْبَابِ لَعَلَّكُمْ تُفْلِحُونَ]

“Say: The evil and the good are not equal, even though the abundance of evil may impress you. So fear Allah (swt), O people of understanding, that you may succeed.” [TMQ Surah Al-Ma’idah: 100].