The Tension Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Makes Them an Easy Target for Colonial Powers
(Translated)

Al-Rayah Newspaper - Issue 565 - 17/09/2025 CE
By: Ustaadh Shabani Mwalimu*

It appears that the two longstanding adversaries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, are heading toward war, as mutual threats between them escalate and forces are being mobilized along their shared border. The tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea is mainly fueled by five issues:

Firstly: The Ethiopian federal government and regional forces, especially in Tigray and Amhara, consider Asmara a potential threat.

Secondly: Regional rivalry, as Eritrea fears geopolitical marginalization in the Horn of Africa, particularly with Ethiopia strengthening its relations with Somalia, Djibouti, and international partners.

Thirdly: The lack of internal stability in Ethiopia, as Eritrea fears that the internal fragmentation in Ethiopia (the unrest in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray) may spread.

Fourthly: The Red Sea issue: Ethiopia, a landlocked country since Eritrea’s independence, has revived its demands for access to a port on the Red Sea, which Eritrea considers a threat to its sovereignty.

Fifthly: The border issue: Ethiopia has never paid attention to demarcating the border with Eritrea, as it considers it part of its territory and one of its own regions. When Eritrea’s independence was declared in 1993, the borders of the new state were not defined. Isaias Afwerki feared that Ethiopia would re-annex the country by undertaking military action to demarcate the border, contrary to the American plan, and this issue remains unresolved to this day.

The current escalation likely stems from a growing sense that a violent conflict, if not a regional war, is imminent. In an interview with Eritrean state media on July 19, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki accused Ethiopia of preparing for war. He described Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambition to secure access to a port on the Red Sea as a “crazy plan.” Getachew Reda, leader of the pro-Ethiopian government faction in Tigray, stated in a post on social media on July 21 that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front is attempting to seize power by force. On the same day, during a military ceremony in Jimma, the commander of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, Birhanu Jula, warned that the divided Tigray is heading toward the path of war. He accused the Tigray People’s Liberation Front of refusing to participate in the process of disarmament, demobilization, and rehabilitation stipulated in the Pretoria Agreement of 2022, which ended the Tigray conflict.

The escalating dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia, ongoing for decades, intertwines with a tense division among groups in the Tigray region. After two years of conflict between the Tigrayans and Eritreans, reports indicated that some members of Tigray People’s Liberation Front and officials in Asmara formed a new alliance against the Ethiopian federal government.

In March of this year, tangible indicators emerged of the readiness of both Addis Ababa and Asmara for war. Reliable and concerning reports emerged about military mobilization on both sides of the border. Ethiopia has deployed very large quantities of new heavy weapons and mechanized units in the Afar region, near the Eritrean border and a short distance from Assab.

This tension does not exist in isolation from other factors, but is deeply shaped by the involvement of international and regional actors, each with strategic, security, or economic interests in the Horn of Africa. It is worth noting that both Ethiopia and Eritrea are states that obey America, and their rulers are its agents. This means that the escalating tensions between the two longstanding adversaries are between agents or “friends,” but remain under the foreign radar. America uses negotiations to settle their differences.

The recurring tension in the Horn of Africa makes it an easy target for colonialist powers, namely the United States and Europe, especially Britain in terms of political influence, and China in terms of economic influence. Since the region, particularly Ethiopia, possesses vast oil reserves in numerous areas, this has driven American policy toward greater interest in the Horn of Africa, especially as Chinese companies play a leading role in economic exploration and extraction of Ethiopian oil.

Britain, through the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has attempted to link Ethiopia to its axis and policy, hoping to influence Ethiopia and Eritrea. The Red Sea and Suez Canal are important routes for global trade. Estimates indicate that approximately 10% of global trade passes through this route, and Britain relies on it to obtain oil, gas, and goods from Asia.

It is regrettable that both Ethiopia and Eritrea are under the control of American, Chinese, and European colonialist powers, and Muslims hardly pay them any attention. Neither of the Western-backed rulers can stand against the ambitions of the United States or Europe to divide the Ummah. The only leader capable of standing against this neo-colonialism is the Khaleefah, for he is authorized to unify the Islamic Ummah under the guidance of the Book of Allah (swt) and the Sunnah of His Messenger (saw).

* Media Representative of Hizb ut Tahrir in Kenya