Trump and Putin: From Love to Hate Is Just One Step

News:

Putin has threatened Trump with a “breakdown of relations” if Ukraine receives Tomahawk missiles from the United States. (nv.ua)

Comment:

In the past two weeks, we have witnessed a series of news reports indicating a shift in the current U.S. administration’s policy toward Russia and its invasion of Ukraine.

On September 23, Trump suddenly declared: “I believe that Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is capable of fighting and winning, restoring all of Ukraine to its original borders.”

On the same day, he also said: “Ukraine can not only regain all its territories but even go further.” “Russia doesn’t look that impressive. For them, this was supposed to be quick. It seems the war is far from over.”

On September 26, he stated: “The Russian economy is going to hell. They are bombing everything in sight and capturing very little territory, if any. In fact, they’re losing some.”

On September 29, U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg announced that Trump had authorized Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes on Russia.

On October 2, reports emerged that Trump had signed an order authorizing the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to assist Ukraine with such strikes.

For the first time, the Trump administration will help Ukraine with long-range attacks. The U.S. has asked NATO allies to provide similar support to Ukraine. The possibility of supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk and Barracuda missiles is under consideration.

In light of this news, it can be assumed that Russia has rejected the conditions proposed by the U.S. for resolving the Ukrainian crisis.

As is known, for many months prior to the meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents in Alaska, Russia had insisted as a critical condition that Ukraine recognize Crimea and the territories occupied in eastern Ukraine as Russian. It appears that Russia, having learned from the bitter experience of the Minsk agreements, fully understands that another “frozen conflict” in exchange for concessions to the U.S. would be like being bitten again by the same snake.

Back in 2015, Russia—believing U.S. promises to overlook its aggression against Ukraine—intervened in the Syrian conflict on behalf of the American agent Bashar al-Assad. This led to the prolongation of Assad’s rule in Syria, as the U.S. had not yet found a suitable replacement for him.

In 2022, when Russia realized that no one intended to recognize its control over annexed Crimea and occupied Donbas, it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

By late 2024, the Assad regime had exhausted itself and was replaced by Turkey-backed Ahmad al-Sharaa. Russia, realizing it had been used, was expelled from Syria.

Since then, Russia understands that any truce or freezing of the conflict in Ukraine would be suicidal. That is why it insists so firmly that its control over Crimea and Donbas be recognized.

As for the U.S. negotiation position on Ukraine, it extends beyond the current crisis. Essentially, the U.S. is using the conflict in Ukraine to compel Russia to cooperate in confronting China.

Today, China is surrounded on three sides by U.S. allies, the most important of which are Japan, South Korea, India, and Pakistan, along with other regional states.

A possible alliance between Russia and China would allow China to break out of this semi-encirclement and gain access to Russia’s immense natural resources—providing a major boost to China’s military and economic power.

As for China’s stance, it remains cautious—it is not ready to actively support Russia at the expense of its vast trade relations with the U.S. and EU.

It is worth noting that the U.S. wants to keep the door slightly open—it does not seek a full resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, since a Russia bogged down in its own invasion would clearly be more pliable.

A full settlement of the Ukrainian crisis in exchange for joint action against China would allow Russia, at any moment, to turn away from the West and embrace China.

On the other hand, Russia’s fresh wounds after its humiliating expulsion from Syria remind it that agreeing to another “Minsk-style” arrangement would be like stepping on the same rake twice.

Thus, it was not surprising when Trump, immediately after the talks, stated: “Now it really depends on President Zelensky to finish the job.”

It is worth recalling that this is the same Trump who, on February 28, 2025, scolded President Zelensky in the Oval Office, claiming that he had no real arguments and was entirely dependent on American arms supplies.

Ukraine, for its part, predictably rejected Russia’s conditions to recognize Crimea and Donbas as Russian.

On September 15, 2025, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko essentially admitted that peace talks had failed, saying: “We need to prepare the military and the people for another year of war—it will require more funds.”

On September 19, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, the country’s chief negotiator, stated: “Ukraine is not currently negotiating with Russia to end the war.”

Just a few days later, beginning on September 23, President Trump radically changed his rhetoric toward Russia and its invasion of Ukraine.

In conclusion, it should be noted that the Ukrainian crisis once again confirms that nations—their sovereignty, resources, lives, and blood—remain hostages in the struggle among superpowers.

Even those superpowers that present themselves as friends and defenders of oppressed nations are, in reality, the main instigators of conflicts and the chief beneficiaries of them. All the talk about the right of nations to self-determination and independence, human rights, and concern for women, the elderly, and children is nothing more than a smokescreen for their vile politics.

This situation will persist until true divine governance is restored in the world—in the form of the Second Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly-Guided Caliphate) following the Prophetic method—whose true purpose will be the well-being of all humanity, not empty slogans.

[فَسَيُنْغِضُونَ إِلَيْكَ رُؤُوسَهُمْ وَيَقُولُونَ مَتَى هُوَ قُلْ عَسَى أَن يَكُونَ قَرِيبًا]

“But they will shake their heads at you and say: ‘When will it happen?’ Say: ‘Perhaps it will be very soon!’” [Qur’an 17:51]

Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by
Fazyl Amzaev
Head of the Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir in Ukraine